{
  "title": "Data-center regulation expectations",
  "source": {
    "author": null,
    "asOf": null,
    "image": "assets/regulation-expectations.jpg",
    "capacitySource": "Cleanview, as credited in the reference; share of planned capacity in gigawatts",
    "note": "Reference odds, publication date and author are unverified. Policy classifications reproduce the reference and are not independent forecasts."
  },
  "rows": [
    {
      "id": "tx",
      "state": "Texas",
      "capacityShare": 26.7,
      "baselineProbability": 0.35,
      "stricterSide": "Gina Hinojosa (D)",
      "ticker": "GOVPARTYTX-26-D",
      "policy": "Hinojosa proposes a moratorium until new rules are implemented. The reference expects Abbott to ease regulation after the election.",
      "requiresControlVerification": false,
      "verifiedOutcome": null,
      "outcomeSource": null,
      "policyEnactment": null
    },
    {
      "id": "oh",
      "state": "Ohio",
      "capacityShare": 5.5,
      "baselineProbability": null,
      "stricterSide": "Both candidates",
      "ticker": null,
      "policy": "Both candidates favor conditional moratoria and similar regulatory requirements. No directional election surprise is scored.",
      "requiresControlVerification": false,
      "verifiedOutcome": null,
      "outcomeSource": null,
      "policyEnactment": null
    },
    {
      "id": "pa",
      "state": "Pennsylvania",
      "capacityShare": 5.7,
      "baselineProbability": 0.65,
      "stricterSide": "Democratic trifecta",
      "ticker": null,
      "policy": "Unified Democratic control could enable environmental rules and make local moratoria easier. Governor and both legislative chambers must be considered.",
      "requiresControlVerification": true,
      "verifiedOutcome": null,
      "outcomeSource": null,
      "policyEnactment": null
    },
    {
      "id": "ga",
      "state": "Georgia",
      "capacityShare": 3.2,
      "baselineProbability": 0.61,
      "stricterSide": "Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)",
      "ticker": "GOVPARTYGA-26-D",
      "policy": "Bottoms proposes a moratorium until rules are established; Jackson does not, according to the reference.",
      "requiresControlVerification": false,
      "verifiedOutcome": null,
      "outcomeSource": null,
      "policyEnactment": null
    },
    {
      "id": "az",
      "state": "Arizona",
      "capacityShare": 2.9,
      "baselineProbability": 0.69,
      "stricterSide": "Democratic trifecta",
      "ticker": null,
      "policy": "Unified Democratic control could tighten environmental and electricity rules. A moratorium is considered unlikely.",
      "requiresControlVerification": true,
      "verifiedOutcome": null,
      "outcomeSource": null,
      "policyEnactment": null
    },
    {
      "id": "nv",
      "state": "Nevada",
      "capacityShare": 1.9,
      "baselineProbability": 0.77,
      "stricterSide": "Aaron Ford (D)",
      "ticker": "GOVPARTYNV-26-D",
      "policy": "Ford favors tighter tax incentives and public-land restrictions. The reference assumes a Democratic trifecta; legislative control also requires verification.",
      "requiresControlVerification": true,
      "verifiedOutcome": null,
      "outcomeSource": null,
      "policyEnactment": null
    },
    {
      "id": "ia",
      "state": "Iowa",
      "capacityShare": 1.4,
      "baselineProbability": 0.18,
      "stricterSide": "Zach Lahn (R)",
      "ticker": "GOVPARTYIA-26-R",
      "policy": "Lahn favors a temporary moratorium and potentially additional taxes; Sand does not favor a moratorium. The stricter side here is Republican.",
      "requiresControlVerification": false,
      "verifiedOutcome": null,
      "outcomeSource": null,
      "policyEnactment": null
    },
    {
      "id": "fl",
      "state": "Florida",
      "capacityShare": 1.2,
      "baselineProbability": 0.28,
      "stricterSide": "David Jolly (D)",
      "ticker": "GOVPARTYFL-26-D",
      "policy": "Jolly proposes a one-year moratorium; Donalds does not, according to the reference.",
      "requiresControlVerification": false,
      "verifiedOutcome": null,
      "outcomeSource": null,
      "policyEnactment": null
    },
    {
      "id": "migov",
      "state": "Michigan",
      "capacityShare": 0.7,
      "baselineProbability": 0.92,
      "stricterSide": "Jocelyn Benson (D)",
      "ticker": "GOVPARTYMI-26-D",
      "policy": "Benson favors a moratorium pending new rules and reduced tax incentives; James does not, according to the reference. This is the governor race, separate from Michigan Senate.",
      "requiresControlVerification": false,
      "verifiedOutcome": null,
      "outcomeSource": null,
      "policyEnactment": null
    }
  ]
}