Steve Kornacki
Kornacki Cam begins November 3 at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Published NBC clips
Loading NBC publications…
Published clips are dated. Live analysis is available through Kornacki Cam.
MARKET PULSELoading saved observations…Kalshi bid/ask midpoints
Election night
Forecasts and race calls
A rating such as “Lean D” is a forecaster’s category. A live estimate updates with counted votes. A race call is the provider’s projected winner.
Expert race ratings
| Race | Inside Elections | Source |
|---|
Pre-election snapshot; these labels are not live race calls. No source publication timestamp was available. Categories are retained without converting them to betting probabilities.
WATCHLIST
Races and ballot measures
CALIFORNIA WEALTH-TAX MEASURESPropositions 41 and 42 could prevent Proposition 40 from taking effect. Review the passage, vote-count and legal-effect contracts separately.
CONGRESSIONAL CONTROL
Congressional powers and vote thresholds
Current market observations alongside dated research scenarios.
51Ordinary majority
Reject nominees; make majority decisions. A 53-seat caucus can lose two votes.
60Legislative cloture
Usually needed to end a filibuster. Seven Republicans if all 53 Democrats agree.
67Veto override*
Two thirds voting in each chamber. Reconciliation does not bypass a veto.
*67 assumes all 100 senators vote. Thresholds assume current procedures. Senate rules ↗
The research scenario map
JPM Market Intel / Bloomberg, via ZeroHedge · November 1, 2026. Original bank note and forecast horizon not independently verified.
Oversight and confirmation powers
Hearings, document requests, Senate confirmation decisions, blocking proposed legislation and voluntary company concessions.
Changes requiring legislation
New taxes, product bans, rewrites of agency powers and appropriations conditions generally require enacted legislation. State regulators and courts act under separate authority.
The 63 / 29 / 8 trade map is undated; its author is unidentified. Its odds and thematic baskets are a separate source snapshot; they are not merged into current market data.
DATA-CENTER MEASURES
Local data-center ballot measures
Factual index from Redbud Consulting’s Data Centers on the Ballot ↗. Classifications and counts follow that registry. County election offices certify the results.
“Yes” can mean restrict or allow. Use the direction shown for each measure. County counts are unofficial;
| Place / measure | Project / size | Effect of YES | Results | Sources |
|---|
DATA-CENTER POLICY
Regulation relative to expectations
Election outcomes compared with fixed pre-election odds, weighted by each state’s share of planned data-center capacity.
See named campuses, company exposure and approval risks →
Loading observations…
| State / planned capacity | Stricter-policy outcome | Reference odds | Current Kalshi odds | Change vs reference | Election outcome | Weighted surprise |
|---|
Capacity-weighted election surprise
For each resolved state: planned-capacity share × (stricter-side outcome − reference probability). A stricter-side win counts as 1; a loss counts as 0. Positive values mean more capacity falls under stricter-policy winners than expected. Units are percentage points of national planned capacity, not a percentage change in regulation.
The eight directional states cover 43.7% of national planned capacity. Ohio adds 5.5% but has no directional odds and is excluded from the score. These states do not represent the full national pipeline or a uniform level of regulatory severity.
Election outcomes and enacted rules
Governor-election outcomes update from explicit Kalshi contract settlements, identified as exchange settlements rather than official election calls. A 99% price is still an unresolved contract. Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada require verified legislative control before their full policy outcome can be scored.
Moratoria, taxes, permitting rules and utility decisions require separate evidence of adoption and implementation. No enacted-policy change has been verified in this tracker. Current odds measure election repricing; they do not establish that regulation has changed.
Reference author, date and odds timestamp are unverified. Capacity weights are credited to Cleanview in the reference. Policy descriptions retain its classifications, including Iowa’s Republican as the stricter candidate. Nevada’s current odds cover the governor race only. This reference baseline is separate from the 9:30 a.m. market baseline.
COMPANIES AND CAMPUSES
Data-center project exposure
Named projects linked to elections, with company roles, remaining approval questions and evidence for the potential business effect.
Evidence checked 2026-11-03 · Initial screen, not a national census. Permits and project stages follow dated sources and are not updated live. A project’s presence here does not mean it will be paused or denied.
Loading projects…
| Project / company | Election connection | Stage / capacity basis | Approval evidence | Potential business effect |
|---|
What the counts mean
Capacity figures mix IT load, utility demand and announced campus power. They are labeled by basis and are not added into a single MW total. Evidence categories describe the connection; they are not probabilities of cancellation.
Effect of a stricter-policy win
Unresolved permits, new phases, grid connections and tax incentives can affect delivery dates, rent commencement, capital costs and project returns. Existing approvals and vested rights require separate review. Campaign commitments do not establish a legally effective stop order.
Project owners and tenants have different exposures. Anthropic is private; public-company connections require a disclosed ownership, contract, financing or utility role. NVIDIA architecture alone does not identify a campus tenant.
Ownership changes and exclusions
PENNYCHECK RESEARCH · NOVEMBER 1, 2026
Election trade ideas
Author’s directions, policy catalysts and conditions that could invalidate each idea.
1.6%Median daily stock-move variation explained by election odds in the author’s screen
0 / 36Names surviving the author’s multiple-testing check
Reported by Pennycheck for August 3–October 30. The underlying model and data are unavailable here; these findings have not been reproduced.
Pennycheck Research, Blue Wave: The Purest Plays · November 1, 2026 · @pennycheck ↗. Original post URL unverified. Short-term setups; the author calls for reassessment after December 11.
Primary-source checks and historical assumptions
Pennycheck’s November 1 odds: Democratic sweep 67%, split Congress 25%, Republican hold 7%. Rounded values total 99%. Current congressional markets are available in Scenarios. Stock prices, short interest, borrow costs, option terms and proprietary regression claims in the original sheet are dated author claims; they are not live feeds.
SOURCES
Research and source documents
Public bank commentary and primary sources.
Research exhibits
Texas utility exposure
SRE / Oncor · CNP / CenterPoint · AEP / AEP Texas · ETR / Entergy Texas · XEL / Southwestern Public Service. The exhibit also lists TXNM; check current ownership and listing status before use.
The exhibit shows staggered commission terms, with the next expirations in September 2027. Commission terms require primary-source verification.
Data sources and refresh intervals
Market data refreshes while this page is open, with per-venue retrieval times. A failed feed retains a visibly dated saved observation. Kalshi shows bid/ask midpoints; Polymarket shows its supplied outcome price. Volume units differ.
Race cards display prediction-market prices. County vote counts appear in the local data-center section. Expert ratings are dated snapshots; live race calls are not connected. Pins stay in this browser. Download watchlist data · Download saved local registry. Odds may not total 100% and may reflect wide spreads or limited liquidity.